Nova pesquisa aponta vitória de Wellington Dias no primeiro turno
Números apontam vitória do governador já no primeiro turno. / Foto: Portal AZ
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:
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color:black;mso-themecolor:text1;mso-fareast-language:PT-BR">A segunda pesquisa do Instituto Data AZ depois de registradas as candidaturas a governador e a primeira após o início da propaganda eleitoral mostrou uma reação bastante significativa do governador Wellington Dias (PT), candidato à reeleição, que no cenário anterior tinha sobre si uma tendência de segundo turno e agora guarda uma vantagem de quase dez pontos percentuais sobre a soma de intenções de votos de seus adversários.</span></p>
<p style="margin:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:justify;background:white"><span style="color:black;mso-themecolor:text1"> </span></p>
<p style="margin:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:justify;background:white"><span style="color:black;mso-themecolor:text1">Na pesquisa atual, realizada entre os dias 4 e 7 de setembro, Wellington aparece com 41,12% das intenções de votos – </span><a href="http://www.portalaz.com.br/publicacao/1854"><span style="color:black;mso-themecolor:text1">contra 36,96% registrados na sondagem estimulada</span></a><span style="color:black;mso-themecolor:text1"> feita entre os dias 24 e 27 de agosto. O petista expandiu em 4,60% as intenções de voto, enquanto não houve crescimento no mesmo nível entre seus adversários. Aliás, houve foi queda.</span></p>
<p style="margin:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:justify;background:white"><span style="color:black;mso-themecolor:text1"> </span></p>
<p style="margin:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:justify;background:white"><span style="color:black;mso-themecolor:text1">O candidato Dr. Pessoa (Solidariedade) recuou dois pontos percentuais em relação à sondagem anterior, caindo de 18,16% em agosto para 16,16% agora no começo de setembro, após o início da propaganda eleitoral em rádio e TV, que aparentemente não o favoreceu.</span></p>
<p style="margin:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:justify;background:white"><span style="color:black;mso-themecolor:text1"> </span></p>
<p style="margin:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:justify;background:white"><span style="color:black;mso-themecolor:text1">O candidato tucano Luciano Nunes variou positivamente, saindo de 8,40% no final de agosto para 9,20% agora em setembro, mas seu crescimento inferior a um ponto percentual, aliado ao desempenho igualmente pífio dos demais candidatos, deixou para trás a tendência de segundo turno captada na pesquisa anterior.</span></p>
<p style="margin:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:justify;background:white"><span style="color:black;mso-themecolor:text1"> </span></p>
<p style="margin:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:justify;background:white"><span style="color:black;mso-themecolor:text1">Elmano Férrer, do Podemos, por exemplo, caiu bastante na comparação com a pesquisa anterior. Suas intenções de voto somavam 4,80% e agora somam 2,72% - uma redução bem significativa.</span></p>
<p style="margin:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:justify;background:white"><span style="color:black;mso-themecolor:text1"> </span></p>
<p style="margin:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:justify;background:white"><span style="color:black;mso-themecolor:text1">Entre os opositores do governador, o que teve melhor performance na expansão de intenções de votos foi Valter Alencar (PSC), que saiu de 1,16% para 1,92%.</span></p>
<p style="margin:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:justify;background:white"><span style="color:black;mso-themecolor:text1"> </span></p>
<p style="margin:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:justify;background:white"><span style="color:black;mso-themecolor:text1">Mesmo assim, somados, os opositores de Wellington Dias têm 31,26% das intenções de voto. A distância para o petista é de 9,86%. Na pesquisa passada, os candidatos de oposição ao somavam 34,84% contra 36,96% do petista, o que representava um empate técnico dentro da margem de erro da pesquisa.</span></p>
<p style="margin:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:justify;background:white"><span style="color:black;mso-themecolor:text1"> </span></p>
<p style="margin:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:justify;background:white"><span style="color:black;mso-themecolor:text1">No campo do que se chama de não-voto (nulos, brancos e eleitores indecisos) não se teve alteração significativa entre as duas pesquisas. Os indecisos (não sabe, não opina) somavam 14,24% no final de agosto e agora sao 13,92%, enquanto brancos, nulos e nenhum dos nomes em disputa tiveram uma variação positiva, saindo de 13,44% para 13,60%%.</span></p>
<p style="margin:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:justify;background:white"><span style="color:black;mso-themecolor:text1"> </span></p>
<p style="margin:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:justify;background:white"><span style="color:black;mso-themecolor:text1">Se no campo do não-voto a variação foi mínima, a pesquisa aponta para um avanço do candidato Wellington Dias sobre eleitores que votavam nos candidatos que perderam intenções de voto na atual pesquisa.</span></p>
<h1 style="margin:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:justify;background:white"><strong><span style="font-size:12.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:text1"> </span></strong></h1>
<h1 style="margin:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:justify;background:white"><strong><span style="font-size:12.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:text1;font-weight:normal">Espontânea</span></strong></h1>
<p style="margin:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:justify;background:white"><span style="color:black;mso-themecolor:text1"> </span></p>
<p style="margin:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:justify;background:white"><span style="color:black;mso-themecolor:text1">O governador também avançou na pesquisa espontânea para governador. Na sondagem anterior ele tinha 27,20% das intenções de voto e agora aparece com 30,56%.</span></p>
<p style="margin:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:justify;background:white"><span style="color:black;mso-themecolor:text1"> </span></p>
<p style="margin:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:justify;background:white"><span style="color:black;mso-themecolor:text1">Dr. Pessoa também variou positivamente, saindo de 6,40% para 7,52% na atual pesquisa, que registrou 5,92% para o tucano Luciano Nunes, que na sondagem anterior aparecia com 5,12%.</span></p>
<p style="margin:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:justify;background:white"><span style="color:black;mso-themecolor:text1"> </span></p>
<p style="margin:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:justify;background:white"><span style="color:black;mso-themecolor:text1">Elmano Férrer, que na pesquisa anterior tinha 1,68% das intenções de voto na pesquisa espontânea agora surge com 0,48%, mesmo percentual de Valter Alencar.</span></p>
<p style="margin:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:justify;background:white"><span style="color:black;mso-themecolor:text1"> </span></p>
<p style="margin:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:justify;background:white"><span style="color:black;mso-themecolor:text1">Os indecisos somam agora 45,84% ante 44,96% da sondagem anterior, indicando também que a expansão das intenções de voto do petista se deu sobre o capital eleitoral de seus adversários, não sobre os indecisos, brancos e nulos.</span></p>
<h1 style="margin:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:justify;background:white"><strong><span style="font-size:12.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:text1"> </span></strong></h1>
<h1 style="margin:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:justify;background:white"><strong><span style="font-size:12.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:text1;font-weight:normal">Certeza do voto</span></strong></h1>
<p style="margin:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:justify;background:white"><span style="color:black;mso-themecolor:text1"> </span></p>
<p style="margin:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:justify;background:white"><span style="color:black;mso-themecolor:text1">Pouco mais da metade (50,48%) dos eleitores dizem que não mudam mais o voto para governador, enquanto um terço (33,12%) admitem trocar de candidato, e 10,72% não sabem ou não opinam. Nessa modalidade, aparecem 5,68% de eleitores que declaram voto nulo.</span></p>
<h1 style="margin:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:justify;background:white"><strong><span style="font-size:12.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:text1"> </span></strong></h1>
<h1 style="margin:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:justify;background:white"><strong><span style="font-size:12.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:text1;font-weight:normal">Rejeição</span></strong></h1>
<p style="margin:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:justify;background:white"><span style="color:black;mso-themecolor:text1"> </span></p>
<p style="margin:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:justify;background:white"><span style="color:black;mso-themecolor:text1">O governador Wellington Dias é o mais rejeitado entre os candidatos a governador: 19,84% dos eleitores dizem que não votariam nele de jeito nenhum.</span></p>
<p style="margin:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:justify;background:white"><span style="color:black;mso-themecolor:text1"> </span></p>
<p style="margin:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:justify;background:white"><span style="color:black;mso-themecolor:text1">Dr. Pessoa, o segundo colocado na disputa, é rejeitado por 2,40% dos eleitores, aparecendo como o quanto mais rejeitado, à frente dos candidatos Luciano Nunes (2,80%) e Elmano Férrer (2,48%).</span></p>
<p style="margin:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:justify;background:white"><span style="color:black;mso-themecolor:text1"> </span></p>
<p style="margin:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:justify;background:white"><span style="color:black;mso-themecolor:text1">Entre os demais candidatos, somente Lourdes Melo teve rejeição maior que um ponto percentual (1,12%).</span></p>
<p style="margin:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:justify;background:white"><span style="color:black;mso-themecolor:text1"> </span></p>
<p style="margin:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:justify;background:white"><span style="color:black;mso-themecolor:text1">Os que não rejeitam nenhum dos candidatos somam 52,96%.</span></p>
<h1 style="margin:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;background:white"><strong><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"adelle","serif";color:#333333"> </span></strong></h1>
<h1 style="margin:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;background:white"><strong><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"adelle","serif";color:#333333;font-weight:
normal">Ficha técnica da pesquisa</span></strong></h1>
<p style="margin:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;background:white"><span style="font-family:"adelle-sans","serif";color:#333333"> </span></p>
<p style="margin:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;background:white"><span style="font-family:"adelle-sans","serif";color:#333333">Total de entrevistas: 1250<br />
Municípios pesquisados: 65 nos 12 territórios de desenvolvimento.<br />
Margem de erro da pesquisa: 2,77%, para mais e para menos<br />
Data da realização: 04 a 07 de Setembro de 2018<br />
Nível de confiança: 95% de toda a amostra<br />
Realizador e contratante: Instituto Data AZ<br />
Registro na Justiça Eleitoral: PI-01330/2018</span></p>
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